What about platinum? Have a look at the chart: the medium-term bullish trend in place since last November may above soon. A correction is expected.

Indeed, 11 months of up-trend have driven platinum price to a technical resistance that is likely to prevent a further rise. The historical high price (point A on the chart) posted in early March 2008 at $2,308 was followed by several months of correction and consolidation. The real plunge started at mid-July last year. In just 3 months, platinum prices fell from $2,059 to $752 (point B, down 63%).

Click to enlarge

A rebound was initiated in November. Some momentum built up and eventually generated a bullish trend. Two weeks ago, the price action failed to break above $1,350. This level corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline occurred between extreme points A and B. It also corresponds to a previous intermediary support zone, where the price action had bounced back in August 2008 (point C). Previous supports often become new resistances. That’s why some profit-taking has been triggered at $1,350: it was a technical opportunity to reduce risk and lock in decent gains.

From $752 to $1,350, it means that platinum prices have already bounced by 79% since last November. According to several indicators (Relative Strength Index but also Chande Momentum Osicllator), an overbought configuration was obvious at mid-September. The upside is very limited and the risk is clearly downward. Yesterday the price closed at $1,300, but there is more to come before bull players will take the opportunity to re-enter long trades. Technically speaking, there is probably 15% more to correct before the price action reaches a support line.

This target at $1,100 corresponds to a previous support area where the price action bounced twice (points D and E) in May and July this year.

The price action has posted a high at $1000, above the previous significant peak of last June (point E on the chart). This point E was posted on a resistance line that was the previous oblique support of the bullish move occurred between last October and last March.

This ascending technical slope was built by higher lows where the price action was regularly bouncing back.

When this support was cleared in April, Gold Investment stock prices continued their correction before rebounding (from points D to E). The previous support that became a new resistance prevented then a further rise above $1,000.

From this high posted in early June, Gold prices consolidated in a range between $900 and $975. The recent spike has started at the very beginning of the current month and it is likely that the barrier of $1,000 will be cleared soon.

One key indicator is the On Balance.. Volume (OBV). It shows that the money flowing into Gold futures contracts has been increasing regularly and significantly since the month of May. The volume creates the price action and this rising OBV is a strong indication that a bullish trend has developed.

There is also a medium-term technical support line (in green) that has been backing the price action for the last 5 months. This support line goes through higher low points D, F and G.

Gold prices sharply corrected after the peak of point A as they were coming from far (below $800).

The momentum was exhausting and profit-taking was unavoidable. Rather that today, the price action n has remained above $900 for a long time and the recent rally (from point G) is only a 7.5%-up move. Further upside is therefore possible and would attract new trend following flows.

STOCK DASHBOARD: August 28, 2009

Blue Energy

Closing Price: 24.0c

Price change from previous trading day: 2.1%

Relative Strength (6 months percentile rank): 52.6

Market capitalisation: $150.9 million

Turnover volume: 273,639.0

Volume Index (1 is average): 0.3

Turnover value: $64,245

Turnover period: 2 years 2 months

Value of $1,000 invested 1 year ago: $857

STOCK CODE IS : BUL ( SPECULATIVE BUY  RECOMENDED )

Check stock price – > BUL

BUL:AU Blue Energy Ltd
Industry: Oil Comp-Explor&Prodtn

Blue Energy Limited is involved in the exploration, evaluation and development of conventional oil and gas and coal bed methane.

Blue energy news :

Blue Energy wants an order restraining both the receiver and ANZ from calling a meeting of shareholders or voting its Blue Energy shares without the consent of the Takeovers Panel.

Blue Energy also wants ANZ to sell down its interest in the company to below 5 per cent in the next year. Read more

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substantial holder notice in relation to shares in Blue Energy.

LINKS:

http://www.takeovers.gov.au/content/DisplayDoc.aspx?doc=reasons_for_decisions/2009/015.htm

Australian Stock Watch: Indian stock market Blue chips at bargain …

Indian stock market Blue chips at bargain prices …. Margin call (3); Margin loan (3); Mumbai stock market (3); Penny Hopefuls 2008 (3); Penny stocks (3) …
www.australianstockwatch.com/…/indian-stock-market-blue-chips-at.html

http://misteaq.blogspot.com/2009/06/indian-goverment-promotes-solar-energy.html

The trends are therefore really easy to identify on this chart. First, there was a sharp bearish trend that drove the price from 104.50 to 55 in the second half of 2008 (between points A and B), when the financial crisis was spreading globally. As you know, this plunge particularly impacted the commodities and stock markets, but also the FX carry trades. The AUD/JPY was one of the most popular carry trades: risk aversion and deleveraging hit strongly the value of the “Aussie” against the Yen.

Click to enlarge

The bullish trend that followed (between points E and C) retraced half of the previous plunge. Indeed, the price action failed on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which corresponds to the level of 80. This level acts as a resistance line and is likely to hold firmly. The price peaked on this level three weeks ago, and immediately corrected. This was due to profit-taking and short-selling around this key Fibonacci ratio. As a result, the price fell back to the previous Fibonacci level (the 38.2% ratio, point D) where it found some support. Then the AUD/JPY has been bouncing back for one week now. A new attempt to break above the resistance line is probable.

Look at the Bollinger bands: the price action found bounced on the lower band. A move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band. This observation is useful when projecting price targets. The upper band currently corresponds to the resistance line at 80. This is the objective for the current price action (the AUD/JPY is currently trading around 77.70).

But as mentioned above, the resistance is likely to hold. The indicators show that a bearish divergence has appeared. The MACD did not confirm the new high of the price action in June, and has already started curving downward.
In this scenario, the AUD/JPY should quickly jump to 80 and then correcting strongly in the following weeks.

The breakout in April of an oblique resistance level gave some momentum to the price action after a period of consolidation. This oblique resistance cleared is actually the slope that goes through lower high points posted since the historical high of November 2006 (point A on the chart).

Click to Enlarge

As expected, the price action reached the following resistance level identified around $1,630. This level corresponds to the previous low posted in last August. The price action peaked even higher, at $1,672.5 on June 12. Two weeks later, a correction has driven the price to $1,508 (10% lower).

The bullish trend in place has clearly weakened and the indicators suggest that a further technical retracement could build up during the next few weeks. Last week, the MACD has crossed below its signal line, triggering a bearish signal. The 30-day Momentum indicator has crossed below its 100-line for the first time since last March. It is confirmed by the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) which had already detected a bearish divergence earlier this month.

Indeed, as the price action was posting a new high at $1,672.5 on June 12, the CMO did not confirm this and instead posted a lower high. It also crossed below its zero line and argues therefore for a continuation of the current bearish move.

In this scenario, we can expect that traders will want to test the new potential support levels. Investors who jumped back at the beginning of the year into commodities markets have the opportunity to lock substantial gains. As zinc was one of the best performers, it is likely that profit-taking will drive prices towards previous highs which may become new lows.

The first target could be then the level around $1,350, which corresponds to the top of the trading channel in place between November 2009 and March 2009.

Good investing,

Gabriel