Chinese stocks helped drive the main index of Asia-Pacific stocks (excluding Japan) to an 11 month high, as two surveys showed accelerating Chinese factory output growth. Car and tyre makers were among the biggest winners, after the US Government announced increased funding for its "cash for clunkers" program to encourage households to trade up to more fuel efficient vehicles.

• In Tokyo, the Nikkei finished flat at 10,352.
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 1 per cent at 5:38pm (AEST).
• Mainland China’s Shanghai composite index gained 1.5 per cent to 3,463, its highest level since March last year.
• Singapore’s main share index was flat at 2,659.

Currency markets

The resurgence is due to increased optimism about a global economic recovery, and demand for currencies linked to commodities. At 5:53pm the Australian dollar was fetching:

• 83.60 US cents
• 79.41 Japanese yen
• 58.80 euro cents
• 49.96 British pence
• 1.2612 New Zealand dollars

Major movers in Australian market

The Australian share market has extended its rally, rising 0.5 per cent on the back of another strong showing by the banks.

At the close, the S&P/ASX 200 was 19.4 points higher, or by 0.5 per cent, at 4263.4 while the broader All Ordinaries rose 21 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 4270.5 points.

• ANZ and NAB led the charge of the big banks, with both up 2.5 per cent, and CBA and Westpac both up by just under 2 per cent. The banks have benefited from broker upgrades as the wave of economic optimism has led analysts to upgrade their profit forecasts. The ANZ also gained after sources told several media outlets that ANZ is close to a deal worth around $1 billion to purchase some of RBS’ Asian assets.
• Aquarius Platinum was amongst the best gaining miners, surging 8 per cent on a broker upgrade.
• Wheat exporter GrainCorp jumped 6.7 per cent to $8.00 after it raised its profit forecast for a second time. Competitor AWB also gained 4.2 per cent on the news.
• Sino Gold picked up 2.8 per cent on the discovery of gold mineralisation near its White Mountain mine in China.

Westpac slashes bank fees

Consumers have scored another victory in the battle against exorbitant bank charges when the Westpac group announcing plans to cut a range of penalty fees from as much as $40 to just $9.

The decision by Westpac and St George – the NSW-based bank it bought last year – follows a move last week by their big four rival, National Australia Bank, to axe the entire overdraft fee of $30 on accounts used by 700,000 personal customers from October 1

KUDOS to NAB FOR BEING THE FIRST BANK TO ACTUALLY CARE.. The rest will follow just to be competitive

Westpac said it would reduce "exception” fees across credit cards and personal and business accounts to $9 from current levels of up to $45. The move includes Westpac subsidiary St George Bank.

Major oil stocks were also mixed, with Oil Search losing one cent to $5.63, Santos up 18 cents at $14.70 and Woodside Petroleum dropping 80 cents, or 1.8 per cent, to $44.90.

Gold miners had mixed fortunes, with Lihir Gold easing 3 cents to $2.74, dual-listed Newmont Mining jumping 16 cents to $4.96 and Newcrest Mining steady at $30.00.

The trends are therefore really easy to identify on this chart. First, there was a sharp bearish trend that drove the price from 104.50 to 55 in the second half of 2008 (between points A and B), when the financial crisis was spreading globally. As you know, this plunge particularly impacted the commodities and stock markets, but also the FX carry trades. The AUD/JPY was one of the most popular carry trades: risk aversion and deleveraging hit strongly the value of the “Aussie” against the Yen.

Click to enlarge

The bullish trend that followed (between points E and C) retraced half of the previous plunge. Indeed, the price action failed on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which corresponds to the level of 80. This level acts as a resistance line and is likely to hold firmly. The price peaked on this level three weeks ago, and immediately corrected. This was due to profit-taking and short-selling around this key Fibonacci ratio. As a result, the price fell back to the previous Fibonacci level (the 38.2% ratio, point D) where it found some support. Then the AUD/JPY has been bouncing back for one week now. A new attempt to break above the resistance line is probable.

Look at the Bollinger bands: the price action found bounced on the lower band. A move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band. This observation is useful when projecting price targets. The upper band currently corresponds to the resistance line at 80. This is the objective for the current price action (the AUD/JPY is currently trading around 77.70).

But as mentioned above, the resistance is likely to hold. The indicators show that a bearish divergence has appeared. The MACD did not confirm the new high of the price action in June, and has already started curving downward.
In this scenario, the AUD/JPY should quickly jump to 80 and then correcting strongly in the following weeks.